This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Kluger, A. Articles by Reisberg, B. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Kluger, A. Articles by Reisberg, B. Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Neuropsychological Prediction of Decline to Dementia in Nondemented Elderly

Steven H. Ferris, PhD

James Golomb, MD

Mary S. Mittelman, DrPH

Barry Reisberg, MD

This study examined whether baseline neuropsychological performance in elderly assessed at a research clinic could accurately predict subsequent decline to dementia. Logistic regression analyses were applied to (1) 213 nondemented elderly with a Global Deterioration Scale (GDS) score of 1, 2, or 3, of whom 74 (35%) subsequently declined to any diagnosis of dementia, and (2) a diagnostically more restricted subset of this sample (N = 179), of whom 56 (31%) declined to a diagnosis of probable Alzheimer's disease (AD). The mean follow-up intervals were 3.8 and 3.7 years, respectively. A small set of baseline neuropsychological measures (especially a Paragraph Delayed Recall Test) significantly differentiated decliners from nondecliners to dementia or AD, after accounting for the contribution of age, sex, education, follow-up interval, and the rating of global clinical status. When examined in combination with the other factors or alone, the cognitive tests produced reasonably high specificities (91%-97%) and sensitivities (73%-89%). Using the obtained regression model, a similar level of classification accuracy was replicated on an independent sample of 119 nondemented elderly. A subanalysis of the high-risk GDS 3 subgroup indicated that cut scores from the paragraph test distinguished nondecliners from decliners (overall accuracies 87%-91%), implying that this assessment may accurately predict future cognitive status in elderly with mild cognitive impairment. (J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol 1999; 12:168-179).

Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and Neurology, Vol. 12, No. 4, 168-179 (1999)
DOI: 10.1177/089198879901200402


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				S. Duverne, S. Motamedinia, and M. D. Rugg The Relationship between Aging, Performance, and the Neural Correlates of Successful Memory Encoding Cereb Cortex, March 1, 2009; 19(3): 733 - 744. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. E. Myers, A. Kluger, J. Golomb, M. A. Gluck, and S. Ferris Learning and Generalization Tasks Predict Short-Term Cognitive Outcome in Nondemented Elderly J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol, June 1, 2008; 21(2): 93 - 103. [Abstract] [PDF]

				B. Winblad, S. Gauthier, L. Scinto, H. Feldman, G. K. Wilcock, L. Truyen, A. J. Mayorga, D. Wang, H. R. Brashear, J. S. Nye, et al. Safety and efficacy of galantamine in subjects with mild cognitive impairment Neurology, May 27, 2008; 70(22): 2024 - 2035. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				A. S. Fleisher, S. Sun, C. Taylor, C. P. Ward, A. C. Gamst, R. C. Petersen, C. R. Jack Jr, P. S. Aisen, L. J. Thal, and For the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study Volumetric MRI vs clinical predictors of Alzheimer disease in mild cognitive impairment Neurology, January 15, 2008; 70(3): 191 - 199. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				L. A. van de Pol, W. M. van der Flier, E.S.C. Korf, N. C. Fox, F. Barkhof, and P. Scheltens Baseline predictors of rates of hippocampal atrophy in mild cognitive impairment Neurology, October 9, 2007; 69(15): 1491 - 1497. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				L. A. van de Pol, E. S. C. Korf, W. M. van der Flier, H. R. Brashear, N. C. Fox, F. Barkhof, and P. Scheltens Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predictors of Cognition in Mild Cognitive Impairment Arch Neurol, July 1, 2007; 64(7): 1023 - 1028. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				D. Blacker, H. Lee, A. Muzikansky, E. C. Martin, R. Tanzi, J. J. McArdle, M. Moss, and M. Albert Neuropsychological Measures in Normal Individuals That Predict Subsequent Cognitive Decline Arch Neurol, June 1, 2007; 64(6): 862 - 871. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				A. S. Fleisher, B. B. Sowell, C. Taylor, A. C. Gamst, R. C. Petersen, L. J. Thal, and for the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study Clinical predictors of progression to Alzheimer disease in amnestic mild cognitive impairment Neurology, May 8, 2007; 68(19): 1588 - 1595. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. E. Myers, A. Kluger, J. Golomb, S. Ferris, M. J. de Leon, G. Schnirman, and M. A. Gluck Hippocampal Atrophy Disrupts Transfer Generalization in Nondemented Elderly J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol, June 1, 2002; 15(2): 82 - 90. [Abstract] [PDF]

				R. H. Paul, R. A. Cohen, D. J. Moser, T. Zawacki, B. R. Ott, N. Gordon, and W. Stone The Global Deterioration Scale: Relationships to Neuropsychological Performance and Activities of Daily Living in Patients with Vascular Dementia J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol, April 1, 2002; 15(1): 50 - 54. [Abstract] [PDF]